Consumer Reports Index: Worried Consumers May Make Reluctant Shoppers During Final Weeks of December

/PRNewswire/ -- While retail spending was strong this November, consumers are feeling the pain of a weak employment picture and increased financial troubles. Americans are showing signs of waning confidence, increased stress and reluctance to spend more in December than a year ago, according to the Consumer Reports Index December report.

The Consumer Reports Retail Index showed that the Past 30-Day Retail Index for December, reflective of November activity, was 12.4, up from both the prior month (10.9) and one year ago (11.2). But with just two weeks left to go in the holiday shopping season, the Consumer Reports Index offers some troubling signs for retailers. The Next 30-Day Retail Index for December (reflecting planned December activity) is down slightly (11.8) versus a year ago (12.2). This was led by the soft performance of planned purchasing of personal electronics relative to last year (27.8% versus 32.9%, respectively).

"Despite all the talk and media attention about positive economic growth, consumers are telling us that they are not seeing or, more importantly, not feeling the difference," said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center. "The consumer may not be confident enough to continue spending through the holiday season. It may require deep discounting from retailers to get consumers back to the store in the final weeks of December."

After five straight months of improvement, the Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index points to an increase in consumer financial difficulties (e.g. missed major bills, job loss, loss of health-care coverage) and is up this month to 52.7 from 49.3 the prior month, but well below one year ago (62.0).

The Consumer Reports Employment Index is down in December to 49.2 from 50.3 in November, and is on par with one year ago (48.9), bringing to a halt three months of modest gains. December's Employment Index is indicative of an economy shedding more jobs than it is creating. In the past 30 days, the proportion of Americans that have lost their job has increased to 7.4% from 4.9% a month earlier. Past 30-day job losses are at their highest level since June (8.6%).

The Consumer Reports Index report, available at www.ConsumerReports.org , comprises five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index, and the Employment Index. Here are the key findings:

Consumer Reports Sentiment Index : 45.1*

The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index (45.1) has slipped slightly from the prior month (46.6), but is up slightly from one year ago (41.8). Sentiment has doggedly refused to enter positive territory (over 50) since it was first measured by the Consumer Reports Index on October 5, 2008 and stood at 45.3.

* The most optimistic consumers: Age 18-34 – 53.5, (down from 58.4 the prior month) and those with household incomes $100,000 or more – 54.5, even with prior month (55.1).
* The most pessimistic consumers: Households with income less than $50,000 (40.2, down slightly from the prior month at 42.2), and consumers age 65 and older (38.7, little changed from a month earlier at 38.4).


* The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index captures respondents' attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. The Sentiment Index can vary from a high of 100 to a low of 0.

Consumer Reports Retail Index : Past 30-Day 12.4, Next 30-Day – 11.8*

* The Past 30-Day Retail Index for December (reflective of November activity) is 12.4, up from the prior month (10.9), as well as a year ago (11.2). December's Next 30-Day Retail Index (planned purchases for December), is at 11.8, up substantially from last month (8.0), but is slightly trailing last year at this time (12.2).
* Looking in detail at the categories comprising the Past 30-Day Retail Index* gains were attributable to an uptick in small appliance sales versus the prior month (21.8% versus 16.7%, respectively); gains in home electronics, up to 15.0% from 11.8% a month earlier; and personal electronics (26.2), up substantially from the prior month (19.6). Versus one year ago, sales in the past 30-days were up for home electronics (15.0%) versus 11.9% last year; and for major appliances (8.1%), up from 6.8% a year ago.
* The gain in the Next 30-Day Retail Index* for December, reflective of December activity, was attributable to an increase in planned purchasing of personal electronics (27.8%), up from 18.2% a month earlier; and a gain in planned purchasing for home electronics (16.5%) versus the prior month (10.0%). Compared to last year, however, planned purchasing of personal electronics was down for this December, 27.8% versus 32.9%, respectively.


* The Consumer Reports Retail Index looks at consumer purchases in the past 30 days as well as the outlook for planned purchases in the next 30 days across several categories. The Consumer Reports Retail Index represents the proportion of respondents that made a purchase in the following categories: major home appliances, small home appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, and major yard and garden equipment. The Retail Index is a weighted calculation. For example, a major appliance is of greater value than a small appliance. Because of their size and frequency, car and home purchases are tracked separately.

Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index : 52.7

* Consumers faced more troubles than last month, signaling a halt to five months of improvement. The trouble tracker index increased to 52.7 in December, up from November's 49.3, though the Trouble Tracker Index is much improved from one year ago (62.0).
* Negative developments were led by an increase in consumers that lost their job in the past 30 days to 7.4% from 4.9% in November, and an increase in those that have missed a payment on a major bill (not mortgage) to 9.5% from 8.9% a month earlier.
* A sign of the weak jobs market is the proportion of consumers that have lost or face reduced health-care coverage (9.0%), up slightly from last month (8.7%), but up from a year ago (7.9%).
* On the positive side, there were fewer consumers that could not afford medical bills or medications (13.3%) versus last month (14.5%) and one year ago (15.7%). However, the improvement in the proportion that could not afford medical bills or medication may signal a change in behavior, where consumers are availing themselves of medical services less often.
* Overall, the most prevalent consumer troubles include: the inability to afford medical bills or medications (13.3%) missed payment on a major bill – not a mortgage (9.5%), and lost or reduced health-care coverage (9.0%).


* The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. The negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication, missed mortgage payments, home foreclosure, interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit-card terms, job loss or layoffs, reduced health-care coverage, or the denial of personal loans. The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index is then calculated as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered.

Consumer Reports Stress Index : 60.8*

* The level of stress consumers feel they are under is down to 60.8 from 58.5 the prior month, but is below the level from one year ago (63.0).


* The Consumer Reports Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed. When the Stress Index is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared to a year ago. The index can vary from 100 (Total Stress) to a low of 0 (No Stress).

Consumer Reports Employment Index : 49.2*

Regionally, the Northeast is doing slightly better this month, led by declining consumer stress and improved retail activity. The North, Central and South have declined slightly as a result of increased consumer economic difficulties and a decline in Consumer Sentiment.

* The Consumer Reports Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their job or were laid off in the past 30 days. An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30 days.

For more information regarding the Consumer Reports Index, visit www.ConsumerReports.org .

The Consumer Reports Index, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center, is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative probability sample of American adults. A total of 1,263 interviews were completed (1,013 telephone and 250 cell phone) among adults aged 18+. Interviewing took place between December 2 and December 5, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 points at a 95% confidence level. The complete index report, methodology, and tabular information are available.

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New Research from EBRI: Health Law Cut Some Health Costs in Retirement, But Retirees Will Need Big Savings

/PRNewswire/ -- Even though the new health reform law will reduce some health costs in retirement for many people, retirees will still need a significant amount of savings to cover their out-of-pocket health expenses when they retire, according to a report released today by the nonpartisan Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). Women in particular will need more savings than men because they tend to live longer.

For instance, EBRI finds that men retiring in this year (2010) at age 65 will need anywhere from $65,000–$109,000 in savings to cover health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses in retirement if they want a 50–50 chance of being able to have enough money; to improve the odds to 90 percent, they'll need between $124,000–$211,000.

Women retiring this year at 65 will need even more: between $88,000–$146,000 in savings if they are comfortable with a 50 percent chance of having enough money, and $143,000–$242,000 if they want a 90 per-cent chance.

These estimates are for Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older: Anyone retiring early, before age 65, would need even more.

The new EBRI analysis details how much savings an individual or couple will need to cover Medicare and out-of-pocket health care expenses in retirement, updating earlier EBRI simulation results from 2008. Some prior estimates have been significantly revised downward as a result of changes to Medicare Part D (prescription drug) cost sharing that will be phased in by 2020 due to the recently enacted health reform law, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (PPACA).

However, EBRI finds that retirees will continue to need a substantial amount of savings to cover their health care expenses in retirement, and that uncertainty related to health care use, prescription drug use, and longevity will still play a major role in planning for retiree health care. Results are shown by the desired level of probability (50, 75, and 90 percent) of having enough savings to cover health costs in retirement.

The full report is titled "Funding Savings Needed for Health Expenses for Persons Eligible for Medicare," and is published in the December 2010 EBRI Issue Brief, online at www.ebri.org

"Because employers are continuing to scale back retiree health benefits, and policymakers may soon begin to address Medicare's funding shortfall, more of the financial costs of health care will be shifted to Medicare beneficiaries in the future," said Paul Fronstin, director of EBRI's Health Research and Education Program, and a co-author of the report.

Dallas Salisbury, EBRI CEO and also a co-author of the report, noted that "many workers are generally unprepared for both health care expenses in retirement and retirement expenses. In fact, many individuals will need more money than the amounts cited in this report," since the analysis deliberately does not factor in the savings needed to cover long-term care expenses or the fact that many people retire prior to becoming eligible for Medicare.

EBRI notes that in 2007 (the most recent data available), Medicare covered 64 percent of the cost of health care services for Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, while retirees' out-of-pocket spending accounted for 14 percent. Private insurance and various other government programs covered the remaining 12 percent of costs.

Among the key findings of the EBRI analysis:

* Single men: Men retiring at age 65 in 2010 will need anywhere from $65,000 to $109,000 in savings to cover health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses, if they want an average (50–50) chance of being able to have enough money. If they want a 90 percent chance of having enough to cover these expenses, they'll need between $124,000 to $211,000.
* Single women: Women retiring at age 65 in 2010 will need anywhere from $88,000 to $146,000 in savings to cover health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses for a 50 percent chance of having enough money, and $143,000 to $242,000 if they prefer a 90 percent chance.
* The near-elderly: Persons currently at age 55 will need even greater savings when they turn 65 in 2020. The needed savings for men retiring in 2020 range from $111,000 to $354,000, while needed savings for women range from $147,000 to $406,000 (in 2020 dollars), depending on their source of health insurance coverage to supplement Medicare, any employer subsidies, prescription drug use, and their savings goal related to their comfort level with having a 50 percent, 75 percent, or 90 percent chance of having enough savings to cover health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket health care expenses in retirement.


EBRI is a private, nonprofit research institute based in Washington, DC, that focuses on health, savings, retirement, and economic security issues. EBRI does not lobby and does not take policy positions.

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Consumer Reports Index: Economy Continues to Waiver With Worsening Job Outlook

/PRNewswire/ -- Consumer difficulties are declining, but the economy continues to waiver, with a worsening job picture and declining retail activity, according to the Consumer Reports Index for September.

The U.S. job outlook remains bleak, the September results for the Consumer Reports Employment Index marks a two-month decline, down in September to 49.1 from 50.2 in August. The share of Americans claiming to have started a new job in the past 30 days is 5.0%, versus 5.9% in August, and down from July's recent high of 7.8%. Job losses in the past 30 days were up, 6.9%, from August, 5.6%. Results show that younger Americans between the ages of 18-34 years have been hit the hardest by job losses (13.7%).

Americans are continuing to pull their purse strings tight. The Consumer Reports Retail Index for August continues to decline. The Past 30-Day Retail Index for September is at 9.8, down significantly from last month's 11.4. September marks an overall decline from a year ago when the Past 30-Day Retail Index was at 11.0, and is at its lowest level since November 2009 (9.0). September's Next 30-Day Retail Index is at 7.6, down from August (8.1), as well as a year ago (8.8). Per capita spending in the past 30 days is down to $185, from $286 in August.

The economy remains unsteady and Americans are cautious, but the Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker continues to show positive developments. It has declined to 53.7 from 56.6 in August, and has posted three months of declines from its recent high in June (63.5). The Trouble Tracker has improved from this time last year when it was at 68.7, a 15-point drop. Positive developments this month were led by a decline in consumers losing or facing reduced healthcare coverage, to 6.7% from 9.7% in August.

As the Trouble Tracker improves, Americans' outlook has yet to brighten. The Consumer Sentiment Index has gradually slipped over the past two months and is currently at 44.1, continuing a slide from July (45.2). This index has changed little since October 2008 when it stood at 45.3.

"The recovery faces serious challenges and is at risk of stalling," said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center. "Job creation remains the greatest challenge. The growth in the ranks of the employed remains anemic and will dampen consumer outlook moving forward. Americans have not seen any real improvement in their financial situation since the recession hit and this is reflected in our Sentiment Index, which has been in negative territory for the last two years."

The Consumer Reports Index report, available at www.ConsumerReports.org, comprises five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index, and the Employment Index. Here are the key findings:

Consumer Reports Sentiment Index: 44.1
-- Consumer Reports Sentiment Index has gradually declined from 45.2 in
July to 44.1 in September. The most optimistic consumers are between
the ages of 18-34 (49.9), along with households with an income of
$100,000+ (50.7). The most pessimistic consumers are between the ages
of 35-64 (42.3) or age 65+ (41.1), and households with an income less
than $50,000 (40.4).


The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index captures respondents' attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. The Sentiment Index can vary from a high of 100 to a low of 0.

Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index: 53.7
-- The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index has shown a decline this
month, pointing to fewer troubles for consumers, dropping to 53.7 in
September from 56.6 in August, and is down substantially from a year
ago (68.7).
-- Positive developments were led by a decline in consumers losing or
facing reduced healthcare coverage, to 6.7% from 9.7% in August; a
drop in the proportion of Americans unable to afford medical bills or
medications (13.6%), down from 15.4% in August, and a slight reduction
in the proportion of Americans that faced negative changes to their
credit cards, down to 7.2% from 8.9% in August.
-- The most common difficulties faced by Americans are:
-- Unable to afford medical bills or medications (13.6%), down from
15.4% in August
-- Missed payment on a major bill - not mortgage (9.3%), down from
10.2% in August
-- Credit card increased rates/fees, reduced credit line (7.2%), down
from 8.9% in August
-- Lower-income households, earning less than $50,000 a year, have been
disproportionately affected. In the past 30 days:
-- 22.4% Have been unable to afford medical bills or medications
-- 16.1% Missed payment on a major bill - not mortgage


The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. The negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication, missed mortgage payments, home foreclosure, interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit-card terms, job loss or layoffs, reduced healthcare coverage, or the denial of personal loans. The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index is then calculated as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered.

Consumer Reports Retail Index: Past 30-Day - 9.8, Next 30-Day - 7.6
-- Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index for September, reflective of
August activity, is at 9.8, down from the prior month (11.4). Per
capita spending for the past 30 days was down significantly for
September, reflecting August activity, to $185, from $286 the prior
month.
-- The proportion of Americans buying across categories in the past 30
days showed the greatest declines in small appliances (16.6%, down
3.7% points), personal electronics (21.4%, down 3.5% points), and
major home electronics (10.7%, down 2% points).
-- Among the non-index categories, past 30 day purchases, reflecting
August activity, were down slightly for new cars (1.7%) versus the
prior month (2.2%), but up for used cars (5.1%) from the prior month
(3.7%). Home purchases were up slightly in September (2.5%) relative
to August (1.6%).
-- Consumer Reports Next 30-Day Retail Index, reflective of planned
purchases for September, is at 7.6, down from the prior month (8.1) as
well as one year ago (8.8).
-- Among the non-index categories, next 30 day planned purchasing points
to new cars declining slightly, 2.5% versus 3.1% the prior month, and
used cars also moving downward to 3.5% from 4.3% for August. Planned
purchasing for homes in the next 30 days, reflecting September
activity, is on par with the prior month (1.5%).


The Consumer Reports Retail Index looks at consumer purchases in the past 30 days as well as the outlook for planned purchases in the next 30-days across several categories. The Consumer Reports Retail Index represents the proportion of respondents that made a purchase in the following categories: major home appliances, small home appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, and major yard and garden equipment. The Retail Index is a weighted calculation. For example, a major appliance is of greater value than a small appliance. Because of their size and frequency, car and home purchases are tracked separately.

Consumer Reports Stress Index: 60.1
-- According to the Consumer Reports Stress Index, the level of stress
consumers feel they are under (60.1) is unchanged from the prior month
(59.4), but down from one year ago (65.4).


The Consumer Reports Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed. When the Stress Index is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared to a year ago. The index can vary from 100 (Total Stress) to a low of 0 (No Stress).

Consumer Reports Employment Index: 49.1
-- The Consumer Reports Employment Index is down in September (49.1) from
50.2 in August, dipping into negative territory.
-- Overall labor force activity has slowed considerably in the past
month, with significantly fewer Americans claiming to have started a
new job in the past 30-days, 5.0% versus 5.9% the prior month.
-- Job losses in the past 30-days (6.9%) were up from the prior period
(5.6%). Job loses have hit younger Americans age 18-34 the hardest
(13.7%).


The Consumer Reports Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their job or were laid off in the past 30 days. An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30-days.

For more information regarding the Consumer Reports Index visit www.ConsumerReports.org.

The Consumer Reports Index, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative probability sample of American adults. A total of 1,257 interviews were completed (1,007 telephone & 250 cell phones) among adults aged 18+. Interviewing took place between August 26-August 29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 points at a 95% confidence level. The complete index report, methodology, and tabular information are available. Contact: C. Matt Fields, 914.378.2454, cfields@consumer.org.

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AARP Survey Looks at Recession's Impact on Lower-Income Adults 45+

/PRNewswire/ -- An AARP report released today for the first time paints a picture of the struggles lower-income older adults are facing during the recession. The AARP Closer Look June 2010 survey found that nearly six in 10 Americans 45+ who make less than $25,000 a year say they are either "not at all" or "not too" confident they will have enough money to pay medical and living expenses in retirement, compared to 36 percent of higher income adults.

More than four in 10 (42 percent) lower-income older adults rate their health as "fair" or "poor," compared to only 18 percent of those who earn more than $25,000 a year. Additionally, many report they are struggling to meet basic needs, like paying for food and electricity, heat and water bills.

"While the recession has been devastating for many older Americans, this recent data indicates lower-income folks are being hit particularly hard," said Jo Ann Jenkins, president of AARP's affiliated charity, the AARP Foundation. "Each day, millions are choosing between essentials like buying groceries or paying for prescriptions. It's a devastating choice that no one should have to make."

Similar to the general population, lower-income older adults have cut back, but they are doing so in greater numbers. Nearly 40 percent had to cancel or postpone needed healthcare or dental treatments in the last six months--twice as many as higher-income adults. Twenty-three percent skipped doses, cut pills in half or did not fill prescriptions, compared with 15 percent of higher-income people. Lower-income adults are twice as likely to have looked for more affordable housing in the last six months compared to higher-income levels. And half used their car less to cut down on gas costs.

Additional findings for all income levels indicate the continual struggles older Americans are experiencing in tough economic times:

-- More than one in four adults 45+ (28 percent) stopped contributing to
retirement savings in the past six months, and 14 percent of adults 45
to 64 reported having to prematurely withdraw funds from retirement
savings vehicles--a trend which has increased at a significant rate
over the recession.
-- When asked about current value of retirement savings available, nearly
half (48 percent) reported having less than $50,000 in savings, with
16 percent of those reporting no savings at all.
-- With many older workers currently facing extended unemployment, a
large majority (63 percent) of respondents said that, based on what
they have experienced or observed, older workers face age
discrimination in the workplace.
-- Twenty percent of people 45+ reported problems paying their medical
bills in the last six months. The percentages were significantly
higher for Hispanics (29 percent) and African-Americans (33 percent).
-- More than a quarter of people 45+ have put off or postponed getting
needed health care or dental treatments or services in the last six
months.
-- Gas prices continue to be a challenge for more than a third (35
percent) of people age 45+, but finding adequate public transportation
alternatives is also a problem, 34 percent say.
-- A third of people age 45+ report are fixing up their homes to stay
there longer even as almost half (45 percent) note that their
community lacks affordable housing if they chose to move.


AARP Foundation (www.aarp.org/foundation) and AARP Real Relief (www.aarp.org/realrelief) have resources to help lower-income older Americans make ends meet, including federal benefits assistance, money management programs and tips to cut expenses.

AARP Closer Look is a twice-yearly poll to help understand the effect of social and economic changes on baby boomers and older Americans. The full survey is available at http://www.aarp.org/money/budgeting-saving/info-09-2010/closer-look-econ-0610. html.

Methodology

ICR conducted the Closer Look Survey for AARP via telephone between June 9 and June 30, 2010, among a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents 45+. One hundred respondents were Hispanic and 100 were African American. The margin of error is +/- 3.35 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.

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LPS' Mortgage Monitor Report Shows Total Delinquent Loans 21.3 Percent Higher Than Last Year; Foreclosure Rates At Record High

/PRNewswire/l/ -- The latest Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE:LPS) , a leading provider of mortgage performance data and analytics, shows that the total number of delinquent loans was 21.3 percent higher than the same period last year. Although the data showed a small 1.45 percent seasonal decline in delinquencies from January 2010 to February 2010 month-end, the national delinquency rate still stood at 10.2 percent. The report is based on data as of February 2010 month-end.

The nation's foreclosure inventories reached record highs. February's foreclosure rate of 3.31 percent represented a 51.1 percent year-over-year increase. The percentage of new problem loans also remains at a five-year high. The total number of non-current first-lien mortgages and REO properties is now more than 7.9 million loans. Furthermore, the percentage of new problem loans is also at its highest level in five years. More than 1.1 million loans that were current at the beginning of January 2010 were already at least 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure by February 2010 month-end.

As a result of the federal government's Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), delinquent loans that were modified and that remained current through HAMP's three-month trial period - called "cures-to-current" - have increased. Advanced delinquency rolls, however, remain elevated from a historical perspective.

Other key results from LPS' latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 10.2 percent
Total U.S. foreclosure inventory
rate: 3.3 percent
Total U.S. non-current* loan rate: 13.5 percent
Florida, Nevada, Arizona,
Mississippi, California, New
Jersey, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio and
States with most non-current* loans: Indiana
North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska,
Wyoming, Nebraska, Montana,
States with fewest non-current* Vermont, Colorado, Washington and
loans: Minnesota

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.

Note: Totals based on LPS Applied Analytics' loan-level database of mortgage assets.

LPS manages the nation's leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information from approximately 40 million loans across the spectrum of credit products. The company's research experts carefully analyze this data to produce dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for LPS' monthly Mortgage Monitor Report.

To review the full report, listen to a presentation of the report or access an executive summary, visit http://www.lpsvcs.com/NEWSROOM/INDUSTRYDATA/Pages/default.aspx.

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Pension Crisis Threatens Financial Health of States

/PRNewswire/ -- State employee pension systems are facing severe shortfalls, and these growing liabilities threaten to drive many states deeper into the red. This is according to "State Pension Funds Fall Off a Cliff," a new 50 state study co-authored by Dr. Barry Poulson of the University of Colorado and Dr. Arthur P. Hall of the University of Kansas.

The report, published by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), the nation's largest individual membership association of state legislators, shows that as of 2006, states have accumulated nearly $360 billion in unfunded pension obligations. However, the authors warn the problem is even worse, as investment losses from the recent economic downturn have not been fully realized in the official government statistics.

A sampling of data from 2008 reveals much trouble ahead if states do not undertake fundamental reform of pension systems. Illinois comes in with the worst funded pension plan in the nation at 46.1 percent. Private defined-benefit pension plans are deemed to be "critical" if the funded portion of the plan is less than 65 percent.

"The underfunding of public pension plans has become the 900 pound gorilla in the area of state budgets," said State Senator Jim Buck of Indiana, Chair of ALEC's Tax and Fiscal Policy Task Force. "If legislators do not properly address the crisis in public pensions, it will make current budget problems in the states look trivial."

The authors of this study conclude that the first step towards real pension reform is to increase transparency of unfunded pension liabilities by meeting the guidelines established by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB). According to the authors, the only viable long-term solution is to replace current defined-benefit plans with 401(k) style defined-contribution plans for new employees.

The full report is available for download at www.alec.org.

The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is the nation's largest nonpartisan, individual membership organization of state legislators.

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INPUT Issues New Report Card on Economic Stimulus Package

(BUSINESS WIRE)--INPUT, the leading authority on government business, today announced an updated Report Card grading the Obama Administration on its execution of stimulus package objectives for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. The new grades were issued based on the release of the much anticipated recipient reports required by the ARRA. They cover four key recovery areas: Speed of Spending, Job Creation, Transparency & Reporting, and Contracting Effectiveness.

Since its first Report Card in June, which graded the Obama Administration on its execution of stimulus objectives during the first 100 days of the ARRA, INPUT has made noteworthy updates to its evaluation. Contracting Effectiveness received the most improved grade, moving from a C- to a B based on federal agencies’ significant improvement in the use of fixed price contracts and in the percentage of contract awards to small businesses. Transparency and Reporting also rose from a D to a C-, still leaving significant room for improvement to address late reporting and a lack of transparency surrounding grants applications for many programs. Speed of Spending continued to receive INPUT’s highest grade, earning a B+ based on the federal government’s adeptness in dispensing a tremendous amount of money very quickly. Meanwhile, Job Creation again received an Incomplete.

“The federal government has continued to dispense stimulus money at a record pace,” said Timothy Dowd, CEO of INPUT. “However, questions still remain about how that spending is translating into new jobs. While INPUT’s latest report card points to some noteworthy areas of improvement in the Administration’s execution on the stimulus, there is still much work to be done to address shortcomings across all key recovery areas.”

Speed of Spending: B+

In Vice President Biden’s first Quarterly Report to the President on Implementing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, he stated that the President had set a goal of spending $350 billion by Sept. 30, 2010. In order to achieve that goal, the federal government needs to spend $4.16 billion per week. The Administration’s speed of spending has remained nearly the same as INPUT’s last scorecard, averaging $3.6 billion per week. At its current pace, the administration will spend $305.2 billion by September 30 of next year, achieving 87% of its previously stated goal.

Job Creation: Incomplete

President Obama promised 3.5 million to 4.0 million jobs would be created or saved with the passage of the Recovery Act. While recently released recipient reports put that number at 640,329 eight months after the ARRA’s enactment, the unemployment rate has risen from 8.9 percent to 9.8 percent during the same period. Additionally, 2.6 million people have lost their jobs since March and 512,000 new unemployment claims were filed during the week ending October 31, 2009.

Despite the recent release of initial recipient reporting, INPUT continues to believe that accurate reporting of job creation is ultimately unknowable because of the number of recipients reporting, the complexity of the reports, the definition of a saved job, and recipients were allowed to use a calculation when they were unable to provide actual data. As a result, INPUT once again gave the Administration an Incomplete for Job Creation.

Meanwhile, recipient reporting has shown that the cost of each job created varies wildly from state to state. For example, the cost per job created or saved in Pennsylvania was $488,930, compared to $41,475 in Montana.

Perhaps the most troubling issue is the concentration of created or preserved jobs in the public sector. Based on its analysis of recipient reports, INPUT discovered that more than half of the total number of jobs created are in the areas of education, criminal justice, corrections and public administration. There are serious concerns about what happens to these jobs when stimulus money runs out and states are still faced with nearly $200 billion in budget gaps.

Transparency and Reporting: C-

INPUT has raised the Administration’s grade for reporting and transparency from a D to a C-. Each new report has been late, based on the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) initial guidance, and the data quality of each new report has been poor upon release. However, over time the quality and completeness of previous reports has improved and INPUT expects this trend will continue. A major area of disappointment continues to be the lack of transparency surrounding applications for many of the grant programs funded by the Recovery Act.

“INPUT encourages the Administration to reconsider its approach with respect to publication of grant applications,” said Dowd. “By allowing citizens access to grant applications before the awards are made and the opportunity to comment on those applications, federal agencies could truly be taking a proactive approach to combating fraud, waste and abuse.”

Effectiveness of Contracting: B

According to INPUT’s latest analysis, federal contracting officials have substantially improved their performance in the use of fixed price contracts, small business involvement, and the establishment of new contracts. As a result, INPUT has raised the Administration’s grade for Effectiveness of Contracting from a C- to a B.

To date, the federal government has awarded 48 percent of the reported contract obligations using fixed price contracts, a 30 percent increase over INPUT’s initial report card. In addition, 86 percent of the reported contract obligations are being channeled through competitive contracts. Almost 70 percent of the reported obligations have been issued against contracts that were already in place prior to passage of ARRA. This is a significant improvement from the 94 percent use of existing contracts in June.

In addition, nearly 27 percent of the contracting dollars awarded have been to small businesses, 4 percent above the government-wide goal of 23 percent and a substantial increase from the 11 percent reported in June. With the small businesses creating 60 percent of the net new jobs since the mid 1990s, the Administration’s pattern of spending in this sector bodes well for job growth.

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Consumer Savings Higher as Debt Declines; Mortgage Delinquencies, Bankruptcies Continue to Grow in September

/PRNewswire/ -- Consumers continue to fight the recession by saving more and paying off debt; banks are responding with more careful lending; and stressed homeowners increasingly are falling behind on mortgages on their primary residence, according to the latest Equifax Inc. (NYSE:EFX) Credit Trends Report, a summary of key economic trends the company distributes to its customers every month.

Some of the key findings in the September report include:

Total consumer debt has been reduced by more than $440 billion, down 3.8 percent from its peak in the third quarter of 2008.

The estimated consumer savings rate continued to be relatively high at 3.71 percent in the third quarter - down from 4.74 percent in the second quarter - but much higher than savings rates that were as low as 1.30 percent as recently as the third quarter of 2008 and .20 percent in the first quarter of 2008.

Bankcard issuers continue to close accounts and reduce credit lines. Since September 2008, there are 88 million fewer accounts and credit lines have been reduced by $751 billion. Delinquency rates also are the highest in five years with 4.36 percent of bankcard accounts more than 60 days late in September 2009 compared with 3.39 percent in September 2008 and 2.80 percent in September 2007.

New accounts opened, based on end of July data, were 54 percent lower than July 2008. The percent of cards issued to those with Equifax Risk Scores greater than 740 grew from about 28 percent in July 2007 to more than 50 percent at the end of July this year. Conversely, the percent of cards issued to those with Equifax Risk Scores 660 and below dropped from 42 percent in July 2007 to slightly over 22 percent in July 2009.

Home mortgages at least 30 days late reached a record 7.65 percent (in dollars) in September, up from 7.58 percent in August and 7.32 percent the previous month. This record rate is a significant increase over the 5.17 percent rate of September 2008 and the 3.55 percent rate of September 2007.

Home equity lines of credit are an estimated $65 billion lower in September 2009 than they were in September 2008 and the number of accounts is an estimated 754,000 lower. Delinquency rates are at an all-time high of 3.39 percent versus 2.66 percent in September 2008 and 1.59 percent in September 2007.

Personal bankruptcies also continued to rise. For the first nine months of 2009, filings are 40 percent higher than last year. Filings have already exceeded one million compared with the 2008 year-long total of 1.1 million.

"American consumers are making the most fundamental change in the way they handle their finances we have seen in a decade," said Dann Adams, president of Equifax's U.S. Consumer Information System. "They are conserving cash and reducing debt across the board. We haven't seen savings rates this high since shortly after the third quarter of 2001 - just after 9-11 - when they were at 3.25 percent.

"At the same time, high unemployment is being reflected in more homeowners falling behind in their primary mortgages," Adams added. "As a result, banks and other financial institutions are being much more careful in managing their risks.

"The data reflect an economy in transition with consumers doing better with their financial management, but with many still struggling in the face of high unemployment and restricted credit."

Data for the Credit Trends Monitor Report is sourced from Equifax's more than 200 million files of US consumers using credit. The personal savings rate information comes from CreditForecast.com, which uses U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

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PricewaterhouseCoopers Report: Second Quarter IPO Market Records First Increase in Activity Since 2007

/PRNewswire/ -- The volume of United States (US) initial public offerings (IPOs) continued to remain low in the first half of 2009. For the first six months, there were only 14 IPOs that raised $2.3 billion, a significant drop from the 43 offerings that generated $27.7 billion for the same period in 2008. The first half of 2008 saw the largest US IPO in history, the $ 17.9 billion Visa Inc. IPO, which skewed the amount of proceeds raised during that period. By comparison, the largest IPO in the first half of 2009 was the $720 million Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. IPO.

A quarter-over-quarter comparison saw an increase in IPO activity in the second quarter of 2009 for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2007. The downward trend in IPO volume started in the first quarter of 2008 and reached its lowest point in the first quarter of 2009. That quarter (Q1 2009) saw only two IPOs that raised $722 million, the lowest in terms of volume in recent history. There were 12 IPOs that raised $1.6 billion in the second quarter of 2009 compared with 18 IPOs that raised $5.1 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

"A few select companies were able to take advantage of the capital markets which started to improve in late March," said Scott Gehsmann, a capital markets partner in PricewaterhouseCoopers' Transaction Services practice. "As we move toward the later part of the year, we will see more companies testing the IPO waters."

The first six months of 2009 saw eight financial sponsor-backed IPOs, comprising 57% of the total volume, and raising an aggregate of $1.0 billion or 44% of the total proceeds. This is significantly higher than 26% of the total volume and 6% of the total proceeds during the same period in 2008.

China was the only non-US issuer, and had four offerings that raised $0.3 billion in proceeds during the first half of 2009. There were 11 non-US issuer IPOs during the same period in 2008, raising $1.6 billion in proceeds.

The NYSE continued to lead in 2009 IPO volume with 11 IPOs raising $2.0 billion in proceeds, 88% of the total proceeds raised during the first six months of 2009.

Similar to the US, global IPO activity saw modest growth in the second quarter of 2009. Europe brought 28 companies public in the April to June period raising $0.8 billion, but that paled in comparison to the second quarter of 2008 when there were 133 offerings raising $18.3 billion. The four largest IPOs of the second quarter accounted for 88% of the total money raised. Hong Kong saw 18 IPOs that raised $2.2 billion in the first half of 2009, which was a 66% drop in terms of value from the same period in 2008. Similar to other markets, the majority of the IPOs in Hong Kong in the first half of 2009 occurred during the second quarter. Brazil witnessed Latin America's largest offering with the $4.3 billion Visanet IPO in June 2009. This was also the largest IPO globally in the first half of 2009.

"Stronger second quarter IPO activity bodes well for the second half of the year," noted Gehsmann. "In fact, a number of companies have already begun to assess their IPO-readiness in preparation for the inevitable return of the IPO market."

US IPO Watch is a quarterly survey of all IPOs listed on US exchanges. These include IPOs by domestic and foreign companies, best-efforts, business development companies, filings with the FDIC, and bank demutualizations. IPOs do not include unit investment trusts and fully classified closed-end funds. Visit our website, www.pwc.com/ustransactionservices, for our 2006, 2007 and 2008 US IPO Watch reports.

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