Consumer Reports Index: Worried Consumers May Make Reluctant Shoppers During Final Weeks of December

/PRNewswire/ -- While retail spending was strong this November, consumers are feeling the pain of a weak employment picture and increased financial troubles. Americans are showing signs of waning confidence, increased stress and reluctance to spend more in December than a year ago, according to the Consumer Reports Index December report.

The Consumer Reports Retail Index showed that the Past 30-Day Retail Index for December, reflective of November activity, was 12.4, up from both the prior month (10.9) and one year ago (11.2). But with just two weeks left to go in the holiday shopping season, the Consumer Reports Index offers some troubling signs for retailers. The Next 30-Day Retail Index for December (reflecting planned December activity) is down slightly (11.8) versus a year ago (12.2). This was led by the soft performance of planned purchasing of personal electronics relative to last year (27.8% versus 32.9%, respectively).

"Despite all the talk and media attention about positive economic growth, consumers are telling us that they are not seeing or, more importantly, not feeling the difference," said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center. "The consumer may not be confident enough to continue spending through the holiday season. It may require deep discounting from retailers to get consumers back to the store in the final weeks of December."

After five straight months of improvement, the Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index points to an increase in consumer financial difficulties (e.g. missed major bills, job loss, loss of health-care coverage) and is up this month to 52.7 from 49.3 the prior month, but well below one year ago (62.0).

The Consumer Reports Employment Index is down in December to 49.2 from 50.3 in November, and is on par with one year ago (48.9), bringing to a halt three months of modest gains. December's Employment Index is indicative of an economy shedding more jobs than it is creating. In the past 30 days, the proportion of Americans that have lost their job has increased to 7.4% from 4.9% a month earlier. Past 30-day job losses are at their highest level since June (8.6%).

The Consumer Reports Index report, available at www.ConsumerReports.org , comprises five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index, and the Employment Index. Here are the key findings:

Consumer Reports Sentiment Index : 45.1*

The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index (45.1) has slipped slightly from the prior month (46.6), but is up slightly from one year ago (41.8). Sentiment has doggedly refused to enter positive territory (over 50) since it was first measured by the Consumer Reports Index on October 5, 2008 and stood at 45.3.

* The most optimistic consumers: Age 18-34 – 53.5, (down from 58.4 the prior month) and those with household incomes $100,000 or more – 54.5, even with prior month (55.1).
* The most pessimistic consumers: Households with income less than $50,000 (40.2, down slightly from the prior month at 42.2), and consumers age 65 and older (38.7, little changed from a month earlier at 38.4).


* The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index captures respondents' attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. The Sentiment Index can vary from a high of 100 to a low of 0.

Consumer Reports Retail Index : Past 30-Day 12.4, Next 30-Day – 11.8*

* The Past 30-Day Retail Index for December (reflective of November activity) is 12.4, up from the prior month (10.9), as well as a year ago (11.2). December's Next 30-Day Retail Index (planned purchases for December), is at 11.8, up substantially from last month (8.0), but is slightly trailing last year at this time (12.2).
* Looking in detail at the categories comprising the Past 30-Day Retail Index* gains were attributable to an uptick in small appliance sales versus the prior month (21.8% versus 16.7%, respectively); gains in home electronics, up to 15.0% from 11.8% a month earlier; and personal electronics (26.2), up substantially from the prior month (19.6). Versus one year ago, sales in the past 30-days were up for home electronics (15.0%) versus 11.9% last year; and for major appliances (8.1%), up from 6.8% a year ago.
* The gain in the Next 30-Day Retail Index* for December, reflective of December activity, was attributable to an increase in planned purchasing of personal electronics (27.8%), up from 18.2% a month earlier; and a gain in planned purchasing for home electronics (16.5%) versus the prior month (10.0%). Compared to last year, however, planned purchasing of personal electronics was down for this December, 27.8% versus 32.9%, respectively.


* The Consumer Reports Retail Index looks at consumer purchases in the past 30 days as well as the outlook for planned purchases in the next 30 days across several categories. The Consumer Reports Retail Index represents the proportion of respondents that made a purchase in the following categories: major home appliances, small home appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, and major yard and garden equipment. The Retail Index is a weighted calculation. For example, a major appliance is of greater value than a small appliance. Because of their size and frequency, car and home purchases are tracked separately.

Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index : 52.7

* Consumers faced more troubles than last month, signaling a halt to five months of improvement. The trouble tracker index increased to 52.7 in December, up from November's 49.3, though the Trouble Tracker Index is much improved from one year ago (62.0).
* Negative developments were led by an increase in consumers that lost their job in the past 30 days to 7.4% from 4.9% in November, and an increase in those that have missed a payment on a major bill (not mortgage) to 9.5% from 8.9% a month earlier.
* A sign of the weak jobs market is the proportion of consumers that have lost or face reduced health-care coverage (9.0%), up slightly from last month (8.7%), but up from a year ago (7.9%).
* On the positive side, there were fewer consumers that could not afford medical bills or medications (13.3%) versus last month (14.5%) and one year ago (15.7%). However, the improvement in the proportion that could not afford medical bills or medication may signal a change in behavior, where consumers are availing themselves of medical services less often.
* Overall, the most prevalent consumer troubles include: the inability to afford medical bills or medications (13.3%) missed payment on a major bill – not a mortgage (9.5%), and lost or reduced health-care coverage (9.0%).


* The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. The negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication, missed mortgage payments, home foreclosure, interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit-card terms, job loss or layoffs, reduced health-care coverage, or the denial of personal loans. The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index is then calculated as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered.

Consumer Reports Stress Index : 60.8*

* The level of stress consumers feel they are under is down to 60.8 from 58.5 the prior month, but is below the level from one year ago (63.0).


* The Consumer Reports Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed. When the Stress Index is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared to a year ago. The index can vary from 100 (Total Stress) to a low of 0 (No Stress).

Consumer Reports Employment Index : 49.2*

Regionally, the Northeast is doing slightly better this month, led by declining consumer stress and improved retail activity. The North, Central and South have declined slightly as a result of increased consumer economic difficulties and a decline in Consumer Sentiment.

* The Consumer Reports Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their job or were laid off in the past 30 days. An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30 days.

For more information regarding the Consumer Reports Index, visit www.ConsumerReports.org .

The Consumer Reports Index, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center, is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative probability sample of American adults. A total of 1,263 interviews were completed (1,013 telephone and 250 cell phone) among adults aged 18+. Interviewing took place between December 2 and December 5, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 points at a 95% confidence level. The complete index report, methodology, and tabular information are available.

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Consumer Reports Index: Economy Continues to Waiver With Worsening Job Outlook

/PRNewswire/ -- Consumer difficulties are declining, but the economy continues to waiver, with a worsening job picture and declining retail activity, according to the Consumer Reports Index for September.

The U.S. job outlook remains bleak, the September results for the Consumer Reports Employment Index marks a two-month decline, down in September to 49.1 from 50.2 in August. The share of Americans claiming to have started a new job in the past 30 days is 5.0%, versus 5.9% in August, and down from July's recent high of 7.8%. Job losses in the past 30 days were up, 6.9%, from August, 5.6%. Results show that younger Americans between the ages of 18-34 years have been hit the hardest by job losses (13.7%).

Americans are continuing to pull their purse strings tight. The Consumer Reports Retail Index for August continues to decline. The Past 30-Day Retail Index for September is at 9.8, down significantly from last month's 11.4. September marks an overall decline from a year ago when the Past 30-Day Retail Index was at 11.0, and is at its lowest level since November 2009 (9.0). September's Next 30-Day Retail Index is at 7.6, down from August (8.1), as well as a year ago (8.8). Per capita spending in the past 30 days is down to $185, from $286 in August.

The economy remains unsteady and Americans are cautious, but the Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker continues to show positive developments. It has declined to 53.7 from 56.6 in August, and has posted three months of declines from its recent high in June (63.5). The Trouble Tracker has improved from this time last year when it was at 68.7, a 15-point drop. Positive developments this month were led by a decline in consumers losing or facing reduced healthcare coverage, to 6.7% from 9.7% in August.

As the Trouble Tracker improves, Americans' outlook has yet to brighten. The Consumer Sentiment Index has gradually slipped over the past two months and is currently at 44.1, continuing a slide from July (45.2). This index has changed little since October 2008 when it stood at 45.3.

"The recovery faces serious challenges and is at risk of stalling," said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center. "Job creation remains the greatest challenge. The growth in the ranks of the employed remains anemic and will dampen consumer outlook moving forward. Americans have not seen any real improvement in their financial situation since the recession hit and this is reflected in our Sentiment Index, which has been in negative territory for the last two years."

The Consumer Reports Index report, available at www.ConsumerReports.org, comprises five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index, and the Employment Index. Here are the key findings:

Consumer Reports Sentiment Index: 44.1
-- Consumer Reports Sentiment Index has gradually declined from 45.2 in
July to 44.1 in September. The most optimistic consumers are between
the ages of 18-34 (49.9), along with households with an income of
$100,000+ (50.7). The most pessimistic consumers are between the ages
of 35-64 (42.3) or age 65+ (41.1), and households with an income less
than $50,000 (40.4).


The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index captures respondents' attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. The Sentiment Index can vary from a high of 100 to a low of 0.

Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index: 53.7
-- The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index has shown a decline this
month, pointing to fewer troubles for consumers, dropping to 53.7 in
September from 56.6 in August, and is down substantially from a year
ago (68.7).
-- Positive developments were led by a decline in consumers losing or
facing reduced healthcare coverage, to 6.7% from 9.7% in August; a
drop in the proportion of Americans unable to afford medical bills or
medications (13.6%), down from 15.4% in August, and a slight reduction
in the proportion of Americans that faced negative changes to their
credit cards, down to 7.2% from 8.9% in August.
-- The most common difficulties faced by Americans are:
-- Unable to afford medical bills or medications (13.6%), down from
15.4% in August
-- Missed payment on a major bill - not mortgage (9.3%), down from
10.2% in August
-- Credit card increased rates/fees, reduced credit line (7.2%), down
from 8.9% in August
-- Lower-income households, earning less than $50,000 a year, have been
disproportionately affected. In the past 30 days:
-- 22.4% Have been unable to afford medical bills or medications
-- 16.1% Missed payment on a major bill - not mortgage


The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. The negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication, missed mortgage payments, home foreclosure, interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit-card terms, job loss or layoffs, reduced healthcare coverage, or the denial of personal loans. The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index is then calculated as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered.

Consumer Reports Retail Index: Past 30-Day - 9.8, Next 30-Day - 7.6
-- Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index for September, reflective of
August activity, is at 9.8, down from the prior month (11.4). Per
capita spending for the past 30 days was down significantly for
September, reflecting August activity, to $185, from $286 the prior
month.
-- The proportion of Americans buying across categories in the past 30
days showed the greatest declines in small appliances (16.6%, down
3.7% points), personal electronics (21.4%, down 3.5% points), and
major home electronics (10.7%, down 2% points).
-- Among the non-index categories, past 30 day purchases, reflecting
August activity, were down slightly for new cars (1.7%) versus the
prior month (2.2%), but up for used cars (5.1%) from the prior month
(3.7%). Home purchases were up slightly in September (2.5%) relative
to August (1.6%).
-- Consumer Reports Next 30-Day Retail Index, reflective of planned
purchases for September, is at 7.6, down from the prior month (8.1) as
well as one year ago (8.8).
-- Among the non-index categories, next 30 day planned purchasing points
to new cars declining slightly, 2.5% versus 3.1% the prior month, and
used cars also moving downward to 3.5% from 4.3% for August. Planned
purchasing for homes in the next 30 days, reflecting September
activity, is on par with the prior month (1.5%).


The Consumer Reports Retail Index looks at consumer purchases in the past 30 days as well as the outlook for planned purchases in the next 30-days across several categories. The Consumer Reports Retail Index represents the proportion of respondents that made a purchase in the following categories: major home appliances, small home appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, and major yard and garden equipment. The Retail Index is a weighted calculation. For example, a major appliance is of greater value than a small appliance. Because of their size and frequency, car and home purchases are tracked separately.

Consumer Reports Stress Index: 60.1
-- According to the Consumer Reports Stress Index, the level of stress
consumers feel they are under (60.1) is unchanged from the prior month
(59.4), but down from one year ago (65.4).


The Consumer Reports Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed. When the Stress Index is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared to a year ago. The index can vary from 100 (Total Stress) to a low of 0 (No Stress).

Consumer Reports Employment Index: 49.1
-- The Consumer Reports Employment Index is down in September (49.1) from
50.2 in August, dipping into negative territory.
-- Overall labor force activity has slowed considerably in the past
month, with significantly fewer Americans claiming to have started a
new job in the past 30-days, 5.0% versus 5.9% the prior month.
-- Job losses in the past 30-days (6.9%) were up from the prior period
(5.6%). Job loses have hit younger Americans age 18-34 the hardest
(13.7%).


The Consumer Reports Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their job or were laid off in the past 30 days. An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30-days.

For more information regarding the Consumer Reports Index visit www.ConsumerReports.org.

The Consumer Reports Index, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative probability sample of American adults. A total of 1,257 interviews were completed (1,007 telephone & 250 cell phones) among adults aged 18+. Interviewing took place between August 26-August 29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 points at a 95% confidence level. The complete index report, methodology, and tabular information are available. Contact: C. Matt Fields, 914.378.2454, cfields@consumer.org.

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Solid Index Findings: Americans Define Themselves Based on Finances, But Don't Invest in Their Fiscal Futures

/PRNewswire/ -- The economic contraction has highlighted the internal duel between Americans' beliefs and actions according to the latest Solid Index, a survey by SunTrust Banks (NYSE:STI) that studies Americans' emotions and perceptions toward their finances. The Solid Index revealed that while more than half (58 percent) of the respondents feel that their financial situation contributes to their perceptions of self-worth, 40 percent of American adults will not be enrolling in a retirement plan this year.

The most recent survey is the fourth in a series of six throughout 2009 and it investigated Americans' thoughts around benefits enrollment, the contributors of their self-worth and their reactions to the recession. In addition to their financial situation, the findings revealed that 55 percent of Americans feel that their job contributes to their sense of self-worth, with 43 percent citing their salary and more than a third (37 percent) noting their possessions.

"It is surprising and unsettling that many Americans are neglecting to properly invest in their future even while using their financial situation as a litmus test for their self worth," said Rilla Delorier, chief marketing officer for SunTrust Banks. "In this current economic situation it may seem difficult to invest in one's retirement, but proper planning and budgeting can lead to solid behaviors and help individuals feel good about themselves now and in the future."

Other key findings of Americans' reactions to the recession include:

-- Almost two thirds (64 percent) feel that they are obligated to feel
grateful for having a job in today's economy.
-- Penny pinching is getting old, with 54 percent stating they are tired
of cutting back on the little things.
-- To combat the restrictions of penny pinching, 93 percent said that
they have purchased an item in the last three months to give
themselves a "pick me up".
-- Women are significantly more likely than men to indulge themselves by
spending on clothes (59% vs. 43% men), while men tend to be more
interested in splurging on electronics (30% vs. 18% women).

Not all reactions to the economic turbulence have been negative. One in two respondents stated that the economy has caused them to spend more quality time with their family, bringing them closer, despite the fact that 55 percent believe a night out with the family has become unaffordable. Additionally, many reported becoming more generous due to the economy by helping their friends, family and neighbors save money by giving away hand-me-down clothes (66 percent), preparing meals for others (55 percent), babysitting (38 percent) and doing renovations (37 percent).

"While Americans are challenged by this economy, they are finding new ways to enjoy their families and friends, whether it's spending more time together or swapping a solid - that is, supporting and helping each other with favors instead of paying others to do it for them," added Delorier. "These types of solid behaviors underscore the generosity and resiliency of Americans."

The Solid Index was conducted by StrategyOne as a five-question, single wave telephone omnibus survey among a census representative sample of 1,000 American adults aged 18 and older. The next wave of SunTrust's Solid Index will be released this December.

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S&P 500 Dividends Projected to Decline 13.3% in 2009; Worst Annual Decline Since World War II

/PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's Index Services announced today that it expects 2009 S&P 500 dividends to decline 13.3%, the worst annual decline since 1942 when dividends fell 16.9%. The $24.60 dividend rate translates into an expected $214.66 billion in payments for S&P 500 companies in 2009 versus the $28.39, or $247.9 billion, paid in 2008.

"Given the current economic climate and growing concern over dividend cuts, dividend increases for the S&P 500 companies are expected to slow in 2009," says Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at Standard & Poor's. "Unless companies believe that their financial future will improve, their need to conserve cash will outweigh their desire to pay dividends."

Standard & Poor's Index Services also announced today that it is decreasing the indicated dividend rate on the S&P 500 from $27.35 to $24.90.

"Due to recent events, including potential congressional action that might limit dividend payments, we are reducing the indicated dividend rate on the S&P 500," continues Silverblatt. "Standard & Poor's expects the indicated rate to decline further during the year as the full economic impact is felt by companies, and then move upward as corporate confidence leads to higher future commitments."

Standard & Poor's Index Services data shows that sixty-two S&P 500 companies decreased their dividends in 2008 by an aggregate $40.6 billion with forty-eight of the decreases coming from Financials ($37 billion). Over the previous five years (2003-2007), there were only 12 dividend decreases in the Financials sector amounting to $5.1 billion.

So far in 2009, fourteen issues (nine of which are Financials) have decreased their dividend rate by over $13.5 billion. "Actual January dividend payments for the S&P 500 were down 23.9%, which speaks to the Q4 decreases, the $13.5 billion cuts year-to-date speaks to future payments," warns Silverblatt.

While dividend decreases and warnings are now prevalent in sectors, Financials remain the primary (but not only) concern. At the end of 2007, 96.7% of the Financials paid cash dividends, accounting for 29.1% of the dividend payments. Currently 84.5% pay, accounting for 15.0% of the dividends.

"The bottom line is that investors need to do a lot more homework than in years past as the prospect for future dividends remains extremely cautious," continues Silverblatt. "On former President Ronald Reagan's 98th birthday, his words still ring true today, Trust but Verify."

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The Conference Board U.S. Leading Economic Index Edges Up Slightly

PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board reports today that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators edged up 0.3 percent in September, following a 0.9 percent decline in August, and a 0.7 percent decline in July.

Says Ken Goldstein, Labor Economist at The Conference Board: "This summer, before the financial market turmoil intensified, the overall economy was entering a period of decline. The extreme volatility in the financial market, and the near freeze-up of credit, will no doubt weaken the economy further. But latest data suggest that conditions in the non-financial economy are not falling apart. Data on hand reflect a contracting economy, but not one in free fall. More likely, what's going on in the financial market is a stretching of the recovery process - which could take a full year to develop."

The Conference Board reports that the Coincident Index fell by 0.5 percent in September, following no change in August, and a 0.2 percent decrease in July. The Lagging Index fell by 0.2 percent in September, following a 0.2 percent rise in August.

-- The leading index increased in September, the first increase in the
last five months. Real money supply, consumer expectations, the
interest rate spread, and the index of supplier deliveries all made
large positive contributions to the index in September, more than
offsetting the negative contributions from building permits, stock
prices, initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) and the
average workweek in manufacturing. From March to September, the
leading index decreased 1.3 percent (a -2.5 percent annual rate),
declining modestly slower than the 1.7 percent decrease (a -3.4
percent annual rate) that prevailed in the previous six months.
However, the weaknesses among the leading indicators have remained
widespread over the past six months.

-- The coincident index decreased sharply in September and it has
declined or held steady since October 2007. Industrial production fell
steeply this month, while employment continued to decline. The
six-month decline in the coincident index has picked up to 0.8 percent
(a -1.7 percent annual rate), from a decrease of 0.3 percent (a -0.6
percent annual rate) in the previous six months, while the weaknesses
among the coincident indicators remained very widespread. In
September, the coincident index decreased more than the lagging index,
and the coincident-to-lagging ratio continued to decline as a result.

-- With consistently widespread weakness among its components, the
leading index has been falling since July 2007. Following the leading
index, the coincident index, a monthly measure of current economic
conditions, has also been decreasing, and its rate of decline has
accelerated in recent months. Meanwhile, real GDP growth slowed to a
1.8 percent average annual rate in the first half of the year, down
from an average annual rate of 2.3 percent in the second half of 2007.
Taken together, the behavior of the composite indexes suggests that
the economy is unlikely to improve in the near term.


LEADING INDICATORS

Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were real money supply*, index of consumer expectations, interest rate spread, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were building permits, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), stock prices, and average weekly manufacturing hours.

The leading index now stands at 100.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.9 percent in August and decreased 0.7 percent in July. During the six-month span through September, the leading index decreased 1.3 percent, with two out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 20 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Two of the four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in September. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the larger positive contributor - were personal income less transfer payments* and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributors were industrial production and employees on nonagricultural payrolls.

The coincident index now stands at 106 (2004=100). This index remained unchanged in August and decreased 0.2 percent in July. During the six-month period through September, the coincident index decreased 0.8 percent, with one out of four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25 percent).

LAGGING INDICATORS

The lagging index stands at 112.2 (2004=100) in September, with two of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the larger positive contributor - were commercial and industrial loans outstanding* and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor - were average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in CPI for services, and change in labor cost per unit of output*. The average prime rate charged by banks, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income* held steady in September. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in August and increased 0.5 percent in July.

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES

The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the three composite indexes and reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 12 Noon on October 17, 2008. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate the money supply. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales. Series in the lagging index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are inventories to sales ratio, consumer installment credit to income ratio, change in labor cost per unit of output, the consumer price index, and the personal consumption expenditure used to deflate commercial and industrial loans outstanding.

The procedure used to estimate the current month's personal consumption expenditure deflator (used in the calculation of real money supply and commercial and industrial loans outstanding) now incorporates the current month's consumer price index when it is available before the release of the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators.

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