Wall Street's Collapse May Boost Private Equity Markets

The collapse of the housing and credit markets that has crippled some Wall Street giants is likely to have a variety of effects on private equity, say faculty at Emory University and its Goizueta Business School.

The fall of Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America, and the decision by Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan to be placed under the purview of the Federal Reserve are driving big changes in financial markets, note faculty members.

One likely shift is a larger role for private equity providers in financing big-ticket deals. But liquidity concerns are likely to rein in their appetite for risk, despite the just-passed $700 billion bailout package, add faculty.

"The consolidation taking place in the financial markets means the playing field is getting a bit smaller," says Thomas More Smith, an assistant professor in the practice of finance. "With fewer investment banking giants available to service big-company deals, we may see smaller private-equity firms swoop in to fill the empty spots."

In fact U.S. private equity firms have picked up the pace of their fund-raising, says the Private Equity Analyst newsletter, published by Dow Jones.

Domestic private equity firms raised $222.6 billion in 264 funds during the first three quarters of 2008, 11% ahead of the $200.4 billion raised by 298 funds in the same time last year, according to Dow Jones.

Distressed firms are seeing strong interest from investors with 18 funds raising $37.9 billion this year, up 28% from $29.5 billion raised by 16 funds at this point last year, according to the Dow Jones analysis.

The newsletter also reports that mezzanine, or layered financing funds attracted $36.9 billion across 13 funds, compared to $3 billion across nine funds through the third quarter last year.

But if the distressed and mezzanine-financing segments were excluded, private equity fund-raising would have been weaker compared to last year, says Jennifer Rossa, managing editor of Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst.

"Buyout fund-raising continues to lag," she notes. "And fresh concerns about the availability of debt won't help."

The credit crunch has still spooked investors and is likely to dampen their enthusiasm for some time, according to Goizueta’s Smith.

"Despite the bank bailout, we’re likely to see reduced capacity," says Smith. "The fact that there are fewer players remaining may also mean a pullback in the variety of services and niche activity that is offered."

Small businesses are finding it tougher to access credit, and that could spur a shift in the direction of venture capital, adds Smith.

"For the most part, VC firms have targeted ‘sexy’ businesses with high-growth potential, like technology companies," says Smith. "That’s in line with their traditional exit strategies that often envision a five-year exit with high returns."

But lately, venture capital providers have been shunning startups and have instead been targeting later-stage companies with a proven track record. That could open the door for more staid firms to catch VC’s eye, says Smith.

"A small but growing advertising company, say, may not offer the same potential as a high-tech business, but it may offer more security," he notes. "As their credit gets choked off, more small traditional businesses may begin to approach venture capitalists. And according to anecdotal evidence, some VCs are paying more attention to them. It’s too early to call it a trend, because we don’t have the data yet. But the potential is there."

A Shift in How Deals are Done

In fact Wall Street’s woes are likely to drive a big shift in the way deals are done, observes Lawrence M. Benveniste, a chaired professor of finance and dean of Goizueta Business School.

"The changes we’re seeing in the investment banking landscape are opening up huge opportunities for private-equity firms," he says. "I expect they will move in to fill the underwriting and other voids that are left as investment banks retreat. Amid the turmoil for example, Blackstone [a global corporate private equity group] has hired some high-level Lehman professionals."

On October 2, the Blackstone Group announced it took on a partner and two managing directors who formerly worked with Lehman Brothers.

Private equity already has a substantial presence in the world market, but as it expands its footprint, companies are likely to see significant changes in the way that deals are financed, says Benveniste.

"Many of the recent transactions have been driven by access to credit and the potential to increase returns through leverage. Leverage ratios of 80% were not uncommon," he explains. "Debt financing has not exactly disappeared, but it is a lot tougher to obtain it. Private equity is available, but I believe that the price-EBITDA multiples on deals will shrink considerably and opportunities for Leverage driven deals will disappear. Instead, deals will be driven more by the potential to add value to the purchased company. This is the traditional model of private equity."

Relating leveraged transactions to the current crisis in the markets, Benveniste remarks that the "The devaluation of much of this leverage debt has contributed significantly to the current weakness in financial institutions."

Klaas Baks, an assistant professor of finance at Goizueta and head of the Emory Center for Private Equity and Hedge Funds, agrees that private equity players may score some gains in today’s financial crisis.

"Many PE firms that rely on leverage to generate returns will need debt financing, but the tight credit markets will put pressure on them," he says. "In this type of market, successful PE firms will add value through channels other than leverage such as improved corporate governance or operational efficiencies."

He says that as investment banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs take on the attributes of commercial banks, private equity firms and hedge funds will likely fill some of the void. "We may see private equity and hedge funds start to perform functions traditionally performed by investment banks," Baks predicts. "But if government regulation is expanded to private equity and hedge funds, such a move may be inhibited."

He expresses some concern about the bailout plan, noting that "at this point we just don’t know the true level of toxic debt."

Baks also questions whether a $700 billion taxpayer-financed bailout will lead to a "moral hazard," or more reckless behavior on the part of financial institutions that believe they are "too big to fail and will be bailed out by the federal government if they get into trouble."

Ray Hill, an adjunct professor of finance at Goizueta Business School, also believes that the problems on Wall Street may drive more activity to private equity firms.

"Private equity firms will be able to attract talent from investment banks," he says. "Also, some private equity firms that did not become overleveraged are already moving segments that were traditionally handled by investment banking firms."

But that does not mean that the investment banking segment is about to disappear from the landscape, adds Hill.

"Goldman Sachs is not about to go under," he says. "Instead the group is likely to retreat from its historical risk taking model. I expect Goldman will still engage in merger and acquisition, advisory and underwriting functions, but will probably limit its maximum leverage to 10x, instead of 25x. The company will make its money through smarter investments instead of just riskier ones."

Looking at a broader issue, Hill worries that the financial crisis is now infecting the real economy.

"The argument made for the bailout by [U.S. Treasury Secretary] Henry Paulson and [Federal Reserve Chairman] Ben Bernanke is that we have a crisis in part of the financial system that may spread to the general economy," says Hill. "At the time they proposed the rescue plan, you could say that the real economy was slowing down, but probably not headed to recession. In the last two weeks, the leading economic indicators have become more pessimistic and the current freeze in short-term credit is likely to do further damage."

He notes that the bailout plan is still a few weeks away from being implemented. "It is no surprise that we don't see the benefits of the plan yet, but some of the adverse consequences of the credit freeze will not be reversible."

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Wall Street Bail Out and the Credit Card Industry

24-7-- It almost sounds like a waste of time to spend my days writing about the Wall Street bailout. With every media outlet in the world zeroed in on our economy and the socio political ramifications that would ensue, should a bailout not occur. Let's be clear, it's a bailout, not a loan or some other disarming term. The credit card industry is already and will be profoundly affected for years to come because of this meltdown; the question to merchants and cardholders is how to keep that facet of the credit industry moving ahead without too much heartache for both parties.

As I'm stroking keys in my office, acquiring banks are contemplating risk as it pertains to their customer's available credit. This type of hard look at your available card balance and if they want to decrease it or take it away from you all together is the front line of the credit crunch that consumers will likely see in the months to come. My intent isn't to alarm anyone, because this may not come to fruition, but if our economy were to enter a credit freeze, the first fat to be trimmed will likely be available card balances. Why? Because it's the easiest way to decrease potential future loss. As banking institutions consolidate, go under and fear becoming under government control; they need to eliminate risk as much as possible. This is really an easy mathematical calculation; multiply the number of cardholders by their available balance and you'll have the sum of their exposure in an economic crisis.

If the government bails out these and other banks on toxic loans and bad debt, it's unlikely that delinquent credit card debt will be a part of the equation. As it appears today, defaulted mortgages, auto loans and business loans will get much of the attention, making the credit card divisions of these lending institutions in the step children of the bailout. As this is a scary concept to credit card holding Americans that often use their cards to float their monthly expenses; this halt to credit affects merchants and the global economy even more. Just as the inability to use a credit card on a daily basis and the need for cash is an inconvenience at best; for businesses, it can cripple them in both the short and long term. Ecommerce merchants that depend on credit cards for roughly 99% of their transactions would be nearly out of business immediately. Again, we're not saying that this will happen; however this is a very real card on the table of banks that can be played at any time.

Shortly after the ecommerce bubble had burst and businesses had found it harder to process customer credit cards at a fair rate, many found it easier and cheaper to process their daily transactions overseas. Non-domestic or offshore credit card processing isn't for illegal and illicit online businesses, like we all used to think. Today, with so many ecommerce merchants selling globally, international merchant accounts are very normal and often offer low rates, better security and services that many US domestic banks may only offer for a fee. While our economy is looking bleak, the global banking industry has proven in the past and may have to prove once again that working together can be better than domination.

Sager G. Loganathan is a freelance Search Engine Optimization writer specializing in the banking and finance industry. Sager Loganathan, a United States Marine Corp Veteran, has a Bachelor of Arts degree in Communications from the State University of New York at Buffalo.

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Although $700 Billion Bail-Out is Only 'First Step' on Long Road to Repair Financial Markets, CornerCap Sees Opportunities for Smart Investors

PRNewswire/ -- Although the $700 billion bail-out legislation signed into law earlier this afternoon by President Bush should help set an orderly process for disposing mortgage assets, it is at best a first step to allow for stability and recovery of the nation's financial markets says Atlanta-based CornerCap Investment Counsel's chief investment officer, J. Cannon Carr, Jr.

Writing for the firm's quarterly newsletter, Carr says that even with the government's plan, credit markets are likely to remain tight until home prices and debt levels fall to rational levels.

"That will take time," Carr says. "Only the market can stabilize home prices." Moreover, with extreme risk aversion among lenders, Carr still anticipates a difficult year ahead for the economy.

"Despite the uncertain market, this is not a time for broad selling," Carr notes. "In fact, there are real opportunities available for the patient and disciplined investor."

The full text of Carr's commentary is available online and may be downloaded at no cost from www.cornercap.com/library/Newsletters/n2008fall.pdf .

Carr points out that the nation has experienced 10 recessions since 1945. In all but the most recent recession (2001) stocks slid as the economy slowed, but began their assent before the recession ended.

"Recognizing that it is impossible to call a market bottom, we believe the probabilities are in our favor and now is the time to take advantage of some increasingly attractive opportunities to make selective buys," Carr said.

His firm began increasing its exposure to consumer stocks earlier in the year, and now sees opportunities in Industrials and Basic Materials stocks, which are among the hardest hit on recession fears.

"While there are still potential land mines out there, a healthy balance sheet and flexible cost structure are keys to helping determine which stocks can weather the storm," Carr said.

According to Carr the nation's financial system cracked due to two issues: too much debt and falling housing prices. "Once the housing process stabilizes, the financial system can more accurately price transactions, and more importantly, evaluate asset risk and debt obligations," Carr said.

What started as "apparently" isolated problems in subprime mortgages over a year ago has mounted to a crescendo of scary news about the health of the U.S. financial system and the global economy Carr writes.

Even if the government successfully plugs the holes in the nation's financial dam, the pressure causing the fissures must still drop before the dam can truly hold, Carr says.

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Bailout Mess Echoes S&L Crisis of the 1990's

Taxpayers may be howling about the price tag of the $700 billion bailout plan that Congress is considering, but according to Emory University economist Hashem Dezhbakhsh, the current crisis is reminiscent of another huge financial disaster in the not-so-distant past: the savings and loan bailout of the early 1990s.

"Savings and loans took a lot of risks in 1980s, which left a lot of institutions insolvent. Government had to come to rescue." The overall cost to taxpayers then? "Half a trillion," says Dezhbakhsh. "It is, in fact, déjà vu."

The cause of the current bailout is the same now as then, he says. "If you have a financial system with incentives that are not set properly, then the system lends itself to excessive risk taking at the expense of someone else."

The most unfortunate aspect of the current bail out effort is that it is so close to the election, says Dezhbakhsh. "That's why it's really hard to have a real debate about the plan. Both Democrats and Republicans are afraid that if noting were done, there would be a disaster, and they'd be responsible for it--even if they don't believe in bailing out institutions making bad choices."

One other unfortunate aspect is fear. "The public thinks this is subsidy for the rich and Wall Street," says Dezhbakhsh. "That's unfortunate because it shows total lack of trust in what politicians and Fed officials say. There is no doubt that special interests are at work here. One cannot deny that the treasury secretary (Henry M. Paulson Jr.) is a veteran of Wall Street.

"At the same time, no one can deny the psychological impact of a passive approach to the crisis that will be very dangerous," adds Dezhbakhsh. "If there is fear of banks collapsing, then there will be run on banks, you can have a severe credit crunch that spreads from the financial side to the rest of the economy. Then, no one can conduct business. That's the fear."

Dezhbakhsh, a professor of economics, is chair of Emory's Department of Economics. His areas of interest include applied econometrics, the oil market, financial markets and volatility, and economics of crime.

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